Recently, Tiki has once again become a talking point in the media. As someone who has spent the last 6–7 years navigating this market from the inside, I find it timely to reflect — not as a nostalgic exercise, but as a way to understand how Vietnam’s e-commerce market has evolved, and what it tells us about the road ahead.
Market Observation
Let’s go back to 2016–2019. At that time, the “Big Four” platforms — Shopee, Lazada, Tiki, and Sendo — dominated the market, with clear positioning and fierce competition. In terms of parcel volume, my memory and industry conversations suggest the following average daily volumes:
- Shopee: Estimated at 200,000 parcels/day, clearly ahead in volume
- Lazada: ~100,000 parcels/day
- Tiki: ~50,000–60,000 parcels/day (about 2 million/month)
- Sendo: A smaller player, perhaps 20,000 parcels/day, mostly focused on digital products like phone top-ups
In total, the e-commerce parcel volume in Vietnam hovered around 400,000 parcels/day in 2019-2020.
But this landscape didn’t hold. Shopee doubled down on mass-market strategy — free shipping, endless vouchers, and onboarding everything and everyone. It truly became “Shopee – Gì cũng có.” Critics called it cheap or low quality, but Shopee was consistent and disciplined. It knew what it was — and scaled ruthlessly.
Tiki, on the other hand, took the opposite route. It promised genuine products, curated sellers, fast delivery (even same-day), and better post-purchase experience. Higher cost structure, higher AOV. Customer-centric, yes — but expensive to operate at scale.
Lazada remained strong in brand partnerships and the FMCG category. They were the earliest to enter Vietnam and brought structured campaign execution and seller operations. Post-COVID, Lazada even showed signs of revival — GMV picked up in 2021–2022, while others were cutting cost. But by 2024, that momentum faded.
Sendo never reached mass. Despite the FPT backing, their model was thinner and more regional. They exited quietly.
Now it’s 2025. Parcel volume today is an order of magnitude larger — around 4 million parcels/day:
- Shopee: Estimated at 2.5 million parcels/day
- TikTok Shop: A new giant, already 1.5 million/day
- Lazada: Down to 50,000–100,000/day
- Tiki: Very small, likely <30,000/day
- Sendo: Effectively out
The market has expanded, but the players have not grown equally. A 10x market growth doesn’t mean all players benefit equally. On the contrary — only a few win, and the rest fall behind. And it happened fast.
Behind the Curtain: Platform Financials
From the outside, many think e-commerce is simple. Set up a website, let sellers list, take a cut. But operating a platform is a different beast — one that burns cash relentlessly.
Let’s break it down using a $100 NMV (Net Merchandise Value — the actual value of fulfilled orders) example. The real GMV (including cancellations/refunds) may be $110, assuming a 10% cancellation rate, but let’s focus on real sales.
Here’s how that $100 gets broken down:
- Platform Take Rate: Sellers might be charged 15–20% gross, but net platform GP (after vouchers, subsidies, seller incentives) is usually 10–15% — so $10–15.
- Other Revenue: From brands, campaigns, or cross-platform ads — typically 3–5%. Let’s say $5.
- Fulfillment Costs: Including logistics and payment processing. These vary based on AOV:
- With Shopee Express, unit cost per parcel can drop to $0.6–$0.8, but with low AOV (~$12), logistics still eat 6–10%.
- Payment gateway cost is ~0.5%.
- Total fulfillment cost: $10 is typical.
- Marketing Costs: Branding and performance marketing eat another 4–8% — let’s use 5% or $5.
What’s left for overhead, tech, admin, org cost? $5 at best. And this has to fund a company with hundreds of staff, regional offices, data centers, fraud detection, seller support, returns handling — everything.
Any drop in topline, any rise in subsidy, any spike in fulfillment cost — and the model breaks.
That’s why even Shopee — dominant as it is — still needs constant fundraising or deep-pocketed backing from Sea Group. Tiki raised over $400 million over its lifetime (as per public disclosures), Sendo had backing from FPT and SBI, and Lazada was infused with billions of dollars from Alibaba. The survival cost is massive.
Strategic Lessons
Some quick takeaways after watching this market change from the inside:
- E-commerce isn’t dying. The industry will keep growing, driven by consumption growth and digital literacy.
- But platforms die — fast. From hero to zero in a few years.
- Survival demands scale and capital. There’s no room for thin models now.
- The unit economics are thin, fragile, and brutally margin-sensitive.
What’s Next?
It’s hard to predict the future. No one in 2015 saw Shopee eating the market. In 2019, TikTok Shop didn’t exist. In 2021, few would’ve guessed Lazada would collapse while TikTok exploded.
But here’s what I think:
- Vietnam’s fundamentals are solid: Fast-growing GDP, rising middle class, strong regional development beyond just HCMC and Hanoi.
- E-commerce behaviors are locked in: Shoppers may move between platforms, but they won’t go back offline entirely.
- Offline still matters: The future is omnichannel. E-commerce is supplementary — not a replacement.
New entrants will come — but they will look different. The startup model (raise seed, grow slowly) is over. Now we will see:
- Global giants (Temu, Shein, maybe even Russian players) entering aggressively.
- Shein, for example, has opened a 10,000 sqm warehouse in Vietnam and is reportedly expanding further in 2025.
- Local capital-heavy players — e.g., if Vingroup re-enters (they exited Adayroi in 2019), it would be with a different playbook or any conglomerate, especially given new policies under Resolution 68 that aim to boost private sector involvement.
AI-commerce is another wildcard. In theory, a powerful AI layer could flip the game — turning platforms into “customer-facing agents” that manage product discovery, pricing, and conversion for consumers.
The Role of Logistics
One last point: logistics is the non-negotiable backbone of all of this.
No matter what channel — Shopee, TikTok, website, livestream, or chat commerce — goods must move. Warehouses, sorting centers, delivery routes, return flows — these must operate with increasing speed and decreasing cost.
And that’s a space I’ll write more about in the next post.
Final Thought
Vietnam’s e-commerce journey is a story of rapid scaling, strategic missteps, and constant reinvention. Some players soared, some vanished. But the underlying consumer trend remains strong.
If you’re in this game, prepare for volatility. But know that opportunity still exists — if you play smart, scale fast, and understand where the economics break.